The Champions League faces a dramatic final week, with some big names, most notably Manchester City, forced out to avoid elimination.
There were many skeptics when UEFA unveiled a new format for its premier competition, but it has provided some good storylines ahead of Matchday 8.
The biggest question is whether City, the 2023 winners and four-time defending Premier League champions, will avoid elimination.
So what do we know so far?
Top eight guaranteed: Liverpool, Barcelona
Top 24 guaranteed (at least): Arsenal, Inter Milan, Atletico Madrid, AC Milan, Atalanta, Bayer Leverkusen, Aston Villa, Monaco, Feyenoord, Lille, Brest, Borussia Dortmund, Bayern Munich, Real Madrid, Juventus, Celtic
Unsure about progress: PSV, Club Brugge, Benfica, PSG, Sporting, Stuttgart, Manchester City, Dinamo Zagreb, Shakhtar Donetsk
Eliminated: Bologna, Sparta Prague, RB Leipzig, Girona, Red Star Belgrade, Sturm Graz, Salzburg, Slovan Bratislava, Young Boys
Another game day! 😲#UCL pic.twitter.com/jEYfEM9kTC
— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) January 22, 2025
Likely scenarios
Top eight (places 1-8)
It would take a mathematical miracle to beat Arsenal and Inter Milan, they are almost through.
The same largely applies to Atlético Madrid and AC Milan.
That leaves Atalanta and Bayer Leverkusen. Given that Leverkusen host weak Sparta Prague, it seems unlikely that Xabi Alonso’s side will not progress. Atalanta must visit Barcelona, an altogether more difficult task.
Should the Europa League champions fail in Catalonia, Aston Villa could take advantage and move into the top eight with a win over Celtic at Villa Park.
Playoffs (places 9-24)
There are currently some big names in places nine to 24 – Real Madrid, Bayern Munich and Paris Saint-Germain, to name just three.
Madrid and Bayern will try to win their final games to secure a seeded spot, meaning they cannot face another team ranked ninth to 16th.
PSG’s hopes received a major boost after they came from 2-0 down to beat Manchester City 4-2 at the Parc des Princes last night.
Those who look in from the outside (seats 25-36)
City top a list of three teams who are currently outside the playoff places but could still progress. Dinamo Zagreb and Shakhtar Donetsk are also on the list.
Pep Guardiola’s expensive side are now just two points off the play-off places and need to beat Club Brugge at the Etihad next week to have any chance. In normal seasons this would be seen as a gift, but City have been uncharacteristically weak this season and face a Bruges side who are unbeaten in 19 games.
All other pages are eliminated.
Here are Opta Supercomputer’s predictions after today’s games and just one matchday left in the 2024-25 UEFA Champions League league stage.
Stay up to date https://t.co/EZ2xKssZGg ⬇️ pic.twitter.com/yoJYbJOBry
— Opta Analyst (@OptaAnalyst) January 22, 2025
How do the playoffs work?
The teams ranked ninth to 16th are seeded and will play against a team that finished 17th to 24th in two games, with the second leg being played at home.
Teams will be formed in pairs for a mini-draw. So the teams that finish ninth and tenth will play against the teams that finished 23rd or 24th. Likewise, the teams that finished 11th and 12th will play against the teams that finished 21st or 22nd.
The eight teams that win the playoff round will advance to the round of 16 where they will meet the eight teams that automatically qualified through the group stage.
When will the playoff draw take place?
The draw will take place on Friday 31st January at 11am UK GMT.
ℹ️ New format. New draw.#UCLdraw | #UELdraw | #UECLdraw pic.twitter.com/QKTwVPMhQU
— UEFA Champions League (@ChampionsLeague) August 20, 2024
When are the playoff games?
They are performed over a two-week period.
The first legs will take place on February 11th and 12th, the second legs a week later on February 18th and 19th.
