Meanwhile, the speaker of the Iranian parliament, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, has positioned himself as an unusual financial advisor the American-Israeli war against Iran.
In a series of posts
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In a recent post, he wrote: “Beware: Pre-market so-called ‘news’ or ‘truth’ is often just an excuse for profit-taking. Essentially, it is an inverse indicator.”
“Do the opposite: If they pump it, close it. If they dump it, go long.”
“See something tomorrow? You know the drill.”
Ghalibaf’s posts should be seen in the context of the broader online spat between Tehran and Washington since the start of the war, analysts say, and reflect a new reality in which social media and conflict increasingly intersect.
They are also peppered with ironic humor.
In another post, Ghalibaf wrote: “We know what is happening in the paper oil market, including the companies being hired to influence oil futures. We also see the broader campaign doomed to failure.”
“But let’s see if they can convert that into ‘real fuel’ at the pump – or maybe even print gas molecules!”
But behind the noise lie more serious calculations, analysts say.
Here’s what we know:
Why Ghalibaf’s financial “advice”?
This reflects Iran’s use of Iran asymmetrical warfareAnalysts say the company is trying to show it can influence U.S. markets by exploiting key economic pressure points. This was one of the main reasons for the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which connects the Gulf with the open ocean and through which 20 percent of the world’s oil and liquefied natural gas (LNG) supplies are shipped. As expected, the closure of the strait sent oil prices soaring and increased economic pressure on the rest of the world.
As part of this crackdown, Ghalibaf went to X on March 22 to threaten financial institutions that play any role in financing U.S. military assets in the Middle East. “US Treasuries are soaked in the blood of Iranians,” he wrote. “We are monitoring your portfolios. This is your final communication.”
“It is widely believed that falling stock markets, rising energy prices and higher interest rates will ultimately force (US President Donald) Trump to refrain from military action and seek a diplomatic solution,” Jo Michell, an economics professor at the University of the West of England in Bristol, told Al Jazeera.
With all of this, Ghalibaf is also exploiting Trump’s own behavior on social media.
“It has also been noted that the US President makes some of his most aggressive statements over the weekend when markets are closed, only to back down in time for the market to open,” Michell said Trump’s sometimes inconsistent messaging.
An example of this occurred at the start of the trading week on March 23, when less than 12 hours remained of Trump’s original 48-hour deadline for Iran to reopen trade Strait of Hormuz. If this were not the case, he had threatened to “wipe out” Iran’s energy infrastructure.
Shortly before that deadline, Trump extended it by five days and later promised to refrain from attacks on Iranian energy facilities for another 10 days to allow for further “constructive discussions.”
Observers said this pattern of behavior led to the creation of the acronym TACO – “Trump always shys away” – a phrase used by traders betting that the US president will back down.
Iran appears to have understood how to exploit the businessman-president’s “pressure points,” Zeidon Alkinani, a Middle East analyst at the Arab Perspectives Institute, told Al Jazeera.
A prolonged and unpredictable conflict could rattle global markets, and even brief changes in pace, such as signs of de-escalation, could be interpreted as attempts to stabilize investor confidence and limit the economic fallout, Alkinani said, adding that speculation, particularly about sensitive sectors such as oil, had itself become part of the conflict.
This is something that Tehran and Ghalibaf have exploited by becoming more active in the information space and portraying the conflict as both a military and propaganda battle, Alkinani explained.
Michell described Ghalibaf’s social media posts as a form of “mocking” the billionaire US president by “exposing his key weakness while emphasizing that markets are increasingly ignoring Trump’s attempts to influence them.”
Why words matter
When it comes to financial markets, uncertainty about what will happen can be as powerful a driver of instability as direct action, which analysts say Ghalibaf makes the point of in his posts.
Alkinani explained that the issue is “less about Iran moving prices in a mechanical sense” and more about how the conflict itself creates new leverage points.
In a market where investors are waiting for every little signal about how the war might unfold and are becoming increasingly wary of Trump’s unreliable messaging, even seemingly playful rhetoric from Iranian officials like Ghalibaf’s can increase market volatility, analysts say.
Furthermore, Alkinani said, the importance of the Strait of Hormuz has expanded Iran’s influence beyond actual oil supply disruptions and changed expectations and market behavior.
Donald Trump’s “high visibility online,” he said, only reinforces this dynamic, making him a frequent and accessible target in the digital realm.
