What Trump Court loss means for billions of tariffs that were paid to the government

president Donald TrumpThe trade war suffered a big setback from many of its government Customs were illegal From a federal court of appeal last Friday. Billions of dollars of trade tasks may have to be refunded to companies, since the trade agreements made by the White House are questioned with other nations. According to the logistics specialist, the underlying attitude within the shipping industry and the supply chain has not changed with the court decision – a stay is until October 14th – and does the uncertainty that the business decisions have been pursued in the course of 2025.

“At the moment we haven’t heard much or saw changes,” said Paul Brashier, Vice President of the Global Supply Chain for his logistics.

After the tariffs are imposed by the Trump administration until October 14th and the expected calling, the senders sit tight. “Most of the invaliders are waiting for the appeal procedure to the Supreme Court of the United States and its final decision. There was also a lot of front -loading, so that the effects should be minimal for the time being,” he said, referring to the period at the beginning of this year, when the imports were loaded as a company that was loaded in the warehouse to avoid a tariff -effective data.

Finance Minister Scott Bessent said On Tuesday, he believes that the Supreme Court of Trump will be maintained by using an emergency law of 1977 to collect trading partners, and the administration has a security plan if this is not the case. Later in the day President Trump said that he would do it Ask the Supreme Court for an “accelerated decision”.

Mike Short, President of Global Forweding at CH Robinson, said his company received calls from several customers who have clarity about the probability that this will go to the Supreme Court if they maintain the judgment and what the reimbursement process could look like.

“This decision affects mutual tariffs on goods from most countries, in addition to drug -related tariffs that affect imports from Canada, Mexico and China. These tariffs make up the lion’s share of the mandatory effort for many of our customers.

Alan Baer, CEO of Ol USA, said that companies have to do with many mixed signals, as the products ordered and arrive in October, already on the water.

In addition to an expected call for appeal from the White House at the Supreme Court, Baer found that Trump could also go to the Senate, which could provide him with special powers for the next 6 to 9 months in order to take tariffs with an end date before the elections on November 26th. Or the administration could concentrate more on a “series of raw material-specific tariffs such as steel and aluminum”.

“I don’t see that the White House gives up to collect taxes over $ 30 billion,” he said and referred to how much the federal government has collected per month from the trade tasks.

“Most companies will remain careful with their forward order unless they realize that demand increases,” added Baer.

So far, the United States has this financial year achieved a tariff income of $ 142 billionAccording to the latest finance department Data.

How tariff reimbursements would work

In short, if the Supreme Court checks the case and maintains the decision of the pre -court courts, it remains unclear whether your decision will determine declining reimbursements from already paid obligations or only prevent tariffs to be applied to future deliveries. If the judgment is covered with reimbursements, these can occur in two ways: either the reimbursements are processed automatically, or the brokers have to do additional work to secure short films. “In the latter scenario, the workload for our folding teams would double overnight and the importers strive to get these dollars back,” he said.

If tariffs have to be refunded, Dan Anthony, President of Trade Partnership Worldwide, says that the process would only be as difficult as the administration manages to.

“Ceiling refunds are quite uncomplicated: all affected imports have an IEPA-specific code and the associated customs amount that enables automated reimbursements of payments,” said Anthony. “An individual request process would make it infinitely more complex. But every sympathy should be forced for importers to jump through tires, not by government agencies who have created work themselves to pay illegal tariffs from Americans,” he said.

Nevertheless, the width of the global trade war is immense. Customs in more than 90 countries And all products exported to the United States are in force. The US -TOAL Harmonized tariff system (HTS) offers performance rates for practically every existing product.

According to Michael Lowell, partner and chairman of the global regulatory obligation for Reed Smith, the harmonized tariff plan of the United States (HTSus) contains over 11,000 eight -shop underpants, and only about 5% of which are freed from mutual tariffs. Each HTSus code is subject to the “Fentanyl” tariffs for Canadian, Chinese and Mexican goods, unless the product can be used after the agreement via the Mexico-Mexico-Canada agreement.

Lowell added that the tariffs of § 232 are targeted.

“There can be about 800 codes that are targeted by the § 232 tariffsBut they also cover a wide range of products that go beyond what an importer sees as aluminum, copper or steel products, ”he said.

Felicia Pullam, former managing director of the office for trade relationships at US Customs and Border Protection and Senior Director for Geo-Commerce in the APCOS center for trade, investment and market access, said that the reimbursement of tariffs is a major challenge for the administration at short notice.

“It is not something that could be done overnight, but I think you could set processes and resources to manage them over time,” said Pullam. “The funds that CBP collects from tariffs go to the US finance ministry – they are not intended for anything,” she said. If they had to be refunded, this would contribute to the US budget deficit and general debt, “just like most other types of federal expenses,” she said.

Small businesses that use a third party (e.g. UPS, Fedex, DHL, broker) as record importers would make additional challenges. In these cases, the US government would refund the third party, which, according to Anthony, must create a process of reimbursement of customers. “This can lead to considerable delays for the actual importers, even if the government process runs smoothly,” he said.

Appeals, but for the time being not counting on the courts

Tariff experts said that the senders are processed 314 days from the time of the freight via the US inch to submit an appointment. According to Lowell, that the product will take over the tariffs in front of the tariffs in February, the window for companies where the tariff calling is appealing is at the end of December.

In the event that the Supreme Court receives the case and the tariffs are illegal, Pullam says the longer the IEPA tariffs are collected, the greater the problem if the government has to pay it back. “For this reason, it could be in the best interest of the country and the Trump administration to change in the best interest of the country and the Trump government, more sooner than later in the best interest of the country and the Trump government,” she said.

But she does not believe that a loss in court would reverse one of the trade agreements. “The business is mainly frameworks and are not written. Negotiations have not yet been completed,” said Pullam. In addition, the administration has already prepared to quickly equip tariff alternatives when IEPA tariffs are lifted. “We would only lose the federal government’s income and move into a different phase of negotiations,” she added.

If the government has to repay importers, it cannot undo the other effects of the tariffs such as Lost Business. But Pullam says that they do not affect more extreme fears about the effects of court decisions. “The economy will not sink. Claims that it sounds more like despair,” she said.

In short, companies also have to consider that it is clear that it is clear regardless of the result of this legal proceedings Customs and trade disorders are far from over.

“The reality is that the tariff volatility has become the new normal value. Several studies of section 232 are active -spans such as wood, medicinal products, furniture, aviation, truck and truck parts, seafood and critical minerals. As we saw with copper in July, these investigations quickly led to new tariffs. -Fiel -tariff -tariff -tariff -tariff -tariff -tariff -tariff -tarick -tariff.

According to Lowell, the court decision has only increased uncertainty for importers.

“Nothing is new on the practical level compared to this last week. But we still see a flood of questions that indicate that the decision asks internal questions for companies,” he said. “Most of these questions assume that the tariffs have to stay here. Nobody seems to count on the dishes to save them from tariffs,” he added.