What does the latest diplomatic round on Ukraine tell us about the mood and intentions of Russian President Vladimir Putin?
First, that he is unwilling to sign a peace agreement. At least not at the moment.
And certainly not the deal (or deals) that is on the table.
“No compromise version has yet been found,” commented Kremlin foreign policy adviser Yuri Ushakov after five hours of talks in Moscow with Putin, US envoy Steve Witkoff and Donald Trump’s adviser and son-in-law Jared Kushner.
No compromise is no real surprise given the Kremlin chief’s uncompromising statements in recent days.
In various statements, he condemned the Ukrainian leadership as a “thieving junta,” accused European leaders of trying to sabotage peace efforts and stressed that Russia retained the initiative on the battlefield.
On several recent occasions, Russian television has shown Putin in military uniform, studying maps of the front line and proclaiming military successes, which has often been disputed by Ukrainian and international observers.
After nearly four years of Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine, despite the heavy casualties Russia has suffered on the battlefield and the damage to the Russian economy, President Putin seems convinced that he is winning this war and that now is not the time to stop.
At least that’s what he wants the West to believe: that now nothing can stop him from achieving his goals.
I have already said that in many ways Vladimir Putin reminds me of a car with no brakes, no steering wheel and no reverse gear; a vehicle racing down the highway at full speed.
Almost four years after the all-out invasion of Ukraine, there is still no sign that the “Putinmobile” is shutting down, turning around or coming to a halt.
He certainly wants his opponents to think that nothing and no one can force him to change direction: neither European leaders, nor the Trump administration, nor President Zelensky.
But cars need fuel (a constant supply).
And to fight a war, countries need money (a constant supply).
Despite international sanctions, the Russian government is still in a position to finance the “special military operation” – the war against Ukraine. But economic pressure is increasing: revenues from oil and gas have fallen and the budget deficit is growing.
Even Putin admits there are problems, citing “imbalances” in the economy.
“In several sectors, production output not only failed to increase this year, but actually fell,” Putin said this week. “Are we happy with such trends? No.”
The Great Unknown: When, if ever, will economic concerns influence the Kremlin’s calculations on the battlefield?
