The new year. A time for reflection, resolution and accurately predicting where every team will end up at the end of the 2024-25 Premier League season.
While we can’t predict exactly how often you’ll use that shiny new gym membership or how strictly you’ll stick to the “New Year, New You” mantra over the next few months, Opta’s league prediction The model helps to get an idea of what the table might look like when May turns around.
Using betting market odds and Opta Power Rankings, the model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) based on historical and current team performances.
These results are then used to simulate the remaining league games thousands of times to see how often teams finished in each position to create a prediction for the final table.
So as the Premier League reaches its halfway point, grab the last bits of Boxing Day and take a look at how the Premier League table could shape up in five months’ time.
Liverpool win the cup
Unsurprisingly, Arne Slot’s team is at the top of the predictions of winning the Premier League Cup with a probability of 91.3%.
The Reds are currently eight points clear and have lost just once in all competitions so far this season. Despite worrying things off the pitch – notably the ongoing uncertainty over the futures of Mohamed Salah, Virgil van Dijk and Trent Alexander-Arnold, whose contracts expire next summer – Liverpool have been in scintillating form on the pitch.
They have won their last three league games in a row, scoring 14 goals. They scored six goals against Tottenham on December 22 before scoring five goals against West Ham at the London Stadium on Sunday.
Can anyone stop them?
End 2024 with a win in the capital 😍 #WHULIV pic.twitter.com/rIBrfWon7v
— Liverpool FC (@LFC) December 29, 2024
Manchester City will finish in the top four
Two wins in 14 games in all competitions. By their standards, City’s form of late has been pretty abysmal.
Although it seems highly unlikely that the champions will retain their Premier League title this season, they are a team that can never truly be written off.
Given their dominance over the past few seasons, Opta still has a 40.8% chance of finishing fourth. They currently sit in fifth place after finishing the year with a much-needed 2-0 win over Leicester – a result that coach Pep Guardiola described as a “relief”.
Despite climbing to second place this season, high-flying Forest have no chance of repeating the Foxes’ title-winning exploits of 2015-16, according to Opta.
The prediction model gives them a 0% chance of finishing first, but predicts Nuno Espirito Santo’s side will finish the season in a respectable fifth place.
We’re in this together. ❤️ pic.twitter.com/COUQPkzPXr
– Nottingham Forest (@NFFC) December 29, 2024
The drop zone
Unlike Forest, the predicted table makes for pleasant viewing for fans of Leicester, Ipswich and Southampton.
All three teams promoted from the Championship last season are predicted to be immediately relegated, with the struggling Saints given an 83.8% chance of remaining bottom of the league.
New coach Ivan Juric said his style of football has similarities to death metal music, but he hopes there is still life in his team in the second half of the season.
Finishing in the bottom half for Manchester United
United have a 14.1% chance of finishing 12th this season. Despite the arrival of new coach Ruben Amorim, the Red Devils have struggled with consistency in recent weeks, recording four wins, one draw and five defeats during the Portuguese coach’s tenure.
Their next three games – Newcastle at home, Liverpool away and Arsenal away in the FA Cup – could ultimately define their season.
The predicted Premier League table
According to Opta:
1. Liverpool
2. Arsenal
3.Chelsea
4. Manchester City
5. Nottingham Forest
6. Newcastle United
7. Aston Villa
8. Bournemouth
9.Tottenham
10. Fulham
11. Brighton
12. Manchester United
13. Brentford
14. Crystal Palace
15. West Ham
16. Everton
17. Wolves
18. Leicester City
19. Ipswich Town
20. Southampton
