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The exuberance of investors about artificial intelligence has heated up a “bladder” in US shares, which resembles the structure of the Dotcom bust around the turn of the millennium. The billionaire investor Ray Dalio warned.
Dalio the Financial Times said that “the pricing has reached levels that are also high with an interest risk and this combination sting the bladder”.
The warning of Dalio, the founder of hedge funds Bridgewater Associates and one of the highest characters on Wall Street, appears whether the boom went too far in US Ki shares. Investors are still concerned about increased loan costs that have been worried after the Federal Reserve officials had dropped their expectations of the interest cuts this year in December.
“Where we are in the cycle, it is very similar to between 1998 or 1999,” said Dalio. “In other words, there is a big new technology that will certainly change the world and be successful. However, some people confuse that investments are successful. “
At the end of the nineties, an increase in Technology Reviews that are partly carried out by low interest rates and the growing introduction of the Internet, followed by brutal correction that tightens monetary policy as Alan Greenspan Fed.
The technical, rocky Nasdaq 100 index doubled in 1999 to only fall by about 80 percent by October 2002. The index has doubled since the beginning of 2023 because stocks such as AI-focused chipmacher nvidia have operated higher.
The Wall Street shares sagged to Deepseek, A on Monday Chinese Ki company Combined with a little-known hedge fund, a paper published the latest AI model competitors that use the performance of Openai and Meta platforms, but at lower costs and with less highly developed hardware. Nvidia violated a market value of almost $ 600 billion on Monday.
Deepseek’s obvious success questions the potential returns of hundreds of billions of dollars that were invested by companies in the data centers of Silicon Valley, and whether China has made it, despite restrictions on its ability to get high-end chips from the USA Import, find a way to compete.
Openai, supported by Microsoft, announced A last week A Plan to invest Up to $ 500 billion in the AI infrastructure. The company’s chatt was the highest quality free app in the Apple App Store until it was sold on Monday by Deepseek’s AI assistant.
Dalio, who retired as chairman of Bridgewater in 2021, but remains on the board, has long used the economic commitment for China. He wrote last year This “The key question is not whether I should invest so much in China or not”. However, he warned that the missions in AI are unusually high.
“The tech war between China and the USA is far more important than profitability, not only for economic superiority, but also for military superiority,” he told the FT.
“Those who will pay attention to profitability with sharp pens will not win this race,” added Dalio.
The Openai founder Sam Altman reinforced the alusiveness of the AI profit and wrote this month to X that the company lost money for its Chatgpt Pro plan of $ 200 per month due to unexpectedly strong use.
Since US technology groups invest a lot, President Donald Trump has undertaken to support the American AI during his second term.
China offered the AI industry financial support, including the introduction of funds that have been set up for the support of its contested semiconductor industry. In the meantime, the United States extended dollars for groups under the former President Joe Biden to build chips on American soil.
Dalio admitted that state support for jockeying skis developers was inevitable in view of the importance of winning the global race, even if it came at the expense of profit.
“In our system, we are largely changing a kind of politics in which the industrial-complex type of politics in which the government is present and that the government influenced by the government will give so important.”
“Capitalism alone – the profit motif alone – cannot win this fight.”
