Doha – The economy in Morocco is expected to accelerate 5.0% in 2025, compared to 3.3% in 2024, despite the headwind from a weak agricultural sector, as was published by a report published by Fitch Solutions on February 26.
BMI, a Fitch Solutions Company, has revised The earlier forecast from 5.6% to 5.0%, mainly due to “new signs that agricultural production will fall under historical average values”.
Nevertheless, the forecast remains “particularly optimistic” and continues to exceed the consensus of the focus economy of 3.9%.
“We project a strong growth of the non-or-or sector, which is driven by solid investments, which are supported by the accommodation monetary policy of Bank al Maghrib and considerable FDI inflows, especially in the sectors cars, aerospace and renewable energies,” the report says.
The investment is expected to be a central growth driver, which is supported by current Installment cuts and robust foreign direct investment inflows.
Bank al Maghrib, the central bank of Morocco, will record an accommodation monetary policy with “an additional 25 basis points of the policy set in 2025 after cuts worth 50 billion to 2024, which will increase the political interest rate to 2.25% by the end of the year.”
This monetary policy is expected to stimulate private investments by reducing credit costs, with lending interest rates averaged since the first quarter of 2023 in the fourth quarter of 2024.
The report states that Morocco’s strategy Locationcheap operating environment and infrastructure Investment For the World Cup 2030 (organized together with Spain and Portugal), considerable foreign capital inflows will continue to be carried out, whereby the net FDI rose by 55.4% in 2024 compared to the previous year.
Household expenses, tourism, trade
Due to three main factors, private consumption will probably remain relatively robust in 2025.
First, the government’s expansion fiscal policy, which includes an increase in expenditure on the public sector’s personnel and wages, will improve budget consumption. Second, a low inflation will help an average of 1.6% in 2025 to maintain consumers’ purchasing performance. Third, the growth of transfers due to stronger growth in Europe is expected, in which more than 80% of the Moroccans living abroad live.
However, these positive factors are restricted by the sluggish growth of agricultural growth sectorwhich uses almost 30% of the employment population.
This is likely to maintain the unemployment rate of 13.3%, which restricts further profits of household income and purchasing power.
The contribution of net exports to growth will probably be near zero in 2025. During the acceleration of growth in Europe (from 1.3% in 2024 to 1.5% in 2025) and the continued strong performance of the tourism sector, the demand for Moroccan exports will increase, which are selected by increasing agricultural imports and a fixed growth of agriculture.
“The tourism sector, which is supported in December 2025 by the hosting of the African Nations Cup, and the greater growth in Europe, the main source of tourists Morocco, will increase the number of tourist arrivals from an estimated 16.8 million in 2024 in 2025,” says the report notes.
The report also deals with potential risks and says: “While we remain bullish in the economic prospects of Morocco, the risks are mainly down.”
This includes an even weaker agricultural period than expected, which could hinder growth by maintaining an increased unemployment rate and increasing the import requirement.
Geopolitical tensions, especially between Israel and Iran, could increase oil prices and exercise inflation pressure.
In addition, a lower growth of the US trade in Europe in US Guidelines Would reduce the demand for Moroccan goods and services, especially for automotive and textual exports.
In terms of US trade policy, the report mentions that the effects on Morocco, if the US administration expands the list of strategic goods that are exposed to the tariffs for the import of semiconductors would be limited Since “the exports of Morocco in the USA has been around 0.5% of its total nominal exports and corresponds to 0.2% of GDP”.
Despite these challenges, the overall views for the Morocco’s economy in 2025 remains positive, whereby the growth is expected to accelerate significantly from 2024, which is mainly driven by the non -agricultural sectors of the economy.
