The economy recorded growth of 3.6%in the fourth quarter of 2024, which led to a balanced strengthening of domestic demand. The budget consumption, which was supported by increasing income and improving the loan conditions, contributed 2.6 points to this service. The overall investment has also developed, which was driven by the setting of companies despite more moderate device dynamics. On the other hand, foreign trade has a negative impact on growth and amputated 5.2 points for GDP progress.
In the first quarter of 2025, growth would have reached 4.2% in the annual shift, which benefits from a recovery of 3.1% in the agricultural sector. Inflation would have increased to 2.2%compared to 0.7%per quarter, while the money supply had recorded a more moderate increase (+6.5%). Thanks to the reflux of trust traffic in connection with the tax amnesty, which was dissolved at the end of 2024, the need for the liquidity of the banks would have made it easier.
For the second quarter of 2025, the economy should have a growth of 3.8%, which is still due to domestic demand. The contribution of the foreign trade would remain negative, but less pronounced than at the end of 2024 due to a simultaneous slowdown of exports and imports. The dynamics of the financial markets would continue with a significant increase in the MASI index (+36.5%) and market capitalization (+37.8%) in T1-2025.
M.Ba.
