As riot police form a line with signs raised, protesters across the street shout curses and chants before setting off fireworks.
As the pyrotechnics rain down, some police officers rush forward, drag the demonstrators away to arrest them and beat them in the process. A crowd dispersal vehicle armed with water cannons douse the still-defiant group as the police line advances. If that fails, tear gas will come next, blanketing Rustaveli Avenue in acrid smoke.
Eventually the demonstrators are slowly cleared.
This is the scene that has been playing out every evening for almost two weeks in Tbilisi, the capital of Georgia.
Protests have rocked the South Caucasus Republic since Georgian Prime Minister Iraqi Kobakhidze announced the government’s resignation on November 28 Suspension of talks on joining the European Unionhas long been an official and popular destination in Georgia.
Thousands have protested outside Georgia’s parliament for days to urge the country to reconsider withholding its bid to join the EU. Many say this would allow Russia to increase its influence over the former Soviet country.
A month earlier, Kobakhidze’s Georgian Dream party won one controversial national electionthe results of which the European Parliament refused to acknowledgeciting “significant irregularities.”
The reversal in foreign policy is part of a shocking change Georgia has experienced in recent years. The “Georgian Dream” government, once seen as a pro-Western bastion in the region, has instead pursued a course that is increasingly oriented towards Moscow since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in 2022.
This has worsened in recent months with the announcement by the European Union The time had come in July Freezing Georgia’s recently opened EU accession processwhile the United States of Washington “strategic partnership” Program with Tbilisi on November 30th.
Georgia’s shift away from its longstanding Western orientation toward Russia – which invaded Georgia in 2008 – is partly due to real security concerns, experts say.
Kornely Kakachia, a professor of political science at Tbilisi State University, says that while Georgia was considered the West’s darling in the South Caucasus, geopolitical realities helped limit those ties.
“Although Georgia had closer contacts with the EU and the US, they did not solve the country’s main problem, namely security – the constant threat from Russia,” Kakachia said.
“The Russian invasion of Ukraine has also drastically changed the calculus because everyone knows that if Russia invades Georgia next, we will be on our own,” he said, adding that this message resonates with Georgians .
Consolidation of power
But the primary motivation for change is domestic, Kakachia said: the simple desire of the Georgian Dream’s elite members to consolidate power. First and foremost is Bidzina Ivanishvili, the billionaire founder of the party Actually rules the country from the shadows.
In this context, the EU’s call for: “Deoligarchization” – the distinction between the interests of Georgia’s public and the interests of its richest members – Ivanishvili understood to refer to him personally, Kakachia said.
“He doesn’t want to lose power, and that’s why he wanted to make sure that no one challenges him,” he said, adding that Ivanishvili “has basically captured all state institutions now – he can fire the prime minister tomorrow and announce any policy he wants, without.” any checks.
While Georgia’s opposition and protesters like to describe every government action as inspired or ordered by Russia, Kakachia says the current government has been quite able to stay on its current course with minimal influence from Moscow.
“Ivanishvili believes that the West is weak and that Russia is winning its war in Ukraine,” he said. “And with pressure coming from the West to maintain democracy, it is much easier to align with Russia and other illiberal powers like China, Turkey, Azerbaijan and others. The more Georgia becomes internationally isolated, the greater Russia’s influence will become.”
Russia is unlikely to intervene openly
Other observers agree that while Moscow is certainly happy with Georgia’s current course, the country is much further down the Kremlin’s list of priorities than many in Georgia assume.
“I would have great reservations about viewing Russia as the main driver of events in Georgia,” said Mark Galeotti, a Russia expert and senior associate fellow at London’s Royal United Institute of Services (RUSI).
He says that Russian President Vladimir Putin, unlike Ukraine and Belarus, does not see Georgia as part of Russia’s historical core and that he does not want anything concrete from the country – such as territory, base rights or mineral concessions.
“Above all, the Kremlin just wants a neighbor who will not openly oppose it,” Galeotti said, adding that this is a condition that the “Georgian Dream” fulfills.
There are few signs that Russia would consider open intervention in Georgia – and fewer effective tools to do so, he says.
“Given the war in Ukraine and indeed the sudden turnaround in Syria, it would be difficult (for Moscow) to find regular forces to intervene.”
Parallels to the Euromaidan revolution in Ukraine
In the absence of significant foreign intervention – whether against the Georgian government by the West or on behalf of the Georgian government by Russia – Georgian protesters are left largely alone to bring down the increasingly repressive authorities.
Many have already done it Parallels drawn between the current demonstrations in Georgia and the 2013-2014 demonstrations Euromaidan revolution in Ukraine, where pro-European protesters managed to topple Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, who sparked outrage when he rejected closer EU ties and instead joined the Russian-led Eurasian Economic Union.
And while the comparison is not exact, this successful civil uprising offers useful lessons for the current movement in Georgia.
“In many countries with authoritarian regimes, there is discontent, corruption and even (armed) rebellions,” said Alexander Clarkson, a lecturer in German and European studies at King’s College London. “But such success in overthrowing a Maidan-level government requires the interaction of several factors, which rarely happens.”
The three key factors, according to Clarkson, are a strong and regionally diverse protest movement, a significant opposition presence within state institutions and enough government officials willing to defect.
The first is certainly present in Georgia. More than 30 Protests broke out in cities and towns across the country, including major cities like Batumi And Kutaisi as well as smaller provincial Cities.
However, the influence of the Georgian opposition on state institutions is marginal. While Georgia is nowhere near as authoritarian as Russia or Belarus, it is far less factional than Ukraine in 2013.
Meanwhile, a steady trickle of government defections continues. Figures like middle level Internal security chiefs and political appointees continue to leave their posts daily at least five Georgian ambassadors have also resigned.
There are also rumors of discontent within the Georgian police rank and file, which may be Georgian Dream’s explanation increasing trust via informal enforcers known as titushki, to violently suppress protests.
The protesters adapt
And the demonstrators are adapting too. In recent days there has been an increase in “anti-Titushki squads” at demonstrations. Their goal is to repel riot police trying to arrest and detain participants.
Around midnight on Saturday, cheers erupted from the crowd on Rustaveli Avenue as a group of 50 of these young men – all rugby players, a Georgian journalist told CBC News – strode proudly onto the street and toward the scene of a recent altercation police went with them.
Both the ongoing Georgian protests and the government’s violent response are unprecedented in the country’s 33 years of independence.
As tens of thousands of Georgians continue to take to the streets every evening, it is still unclear whether they will succeed, but the stakes could not be higher.
The Georgian authorities are ready to do this Ban on all major opposition parties In the near future, it could be the last chance for protesters to stop their country’s authoritarian – and Russia-friendly – descent.
