Russia has accused Moldova of planning a military operation Transnistriaa Russian-backed secessionist region, sparking fears among some analysts that Moscow could be a “false flag” attack Moldova.
Russian intelligence said earlier this week that Moldova’s President Maia Sandu planned a military operation in Transnistriawhich borders Ukraine. Sandu was sworn in for her second term as president on Tuesday.
On Wednesday, the Russian Foreign Ministry claimed that NATO was turning Moldova into a weapons hub for Ukraine. The accusation is likely to only further fuel fears that Moscow may be looking for justification for possible action against its smaller neighbor.
Here’s more on what’s going on with Russia and Moldova – and what to expect.
What did Russia claim?
On Monday, Russian foreign intelligence said Sandu from Moldova was planning a military operation Transnistria. Russian intelligence speculated that the military operation could escalate into war.
Sandu’s chief of staff Adrian Balutel dismissed the claims, insisting that the country has no such plans for a military invasion of Transnistria, despite claiming the territory as part of Moldova.
Then on Wednesday Russia added a new allegation – that US-led NATO had transferred large numbers of weapons to Moldova in recent months. Maria Zakharova, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman, said Moscow believes these weapons are ultimately destined for Ukraine. She cited Sandu’s pro-Western leanings to support her claims.
In recent months, Russian President Vladimir Putin has increasingly suggested that not only Ukraine but also other countries that support it in its war against Moscow may be treated by the Kremlin as enemies it could attack.
What are the “false flag” concerns?
Since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Sandu has sounded the alarm that Moldova could be Moscow’s next target and called on Western leaders to address Moldova’s concerns.
When Sandu was sworn in for her second term in the capital Chisinau this week, she said: “We have managed to open the door to the European Union wide.” Moldova has been a candidate for EU membership since June 2022 and is waiting for Brussels to approve its application for membership officially accepts.
The Kremlin’s latest accusations may be part of a larger plan to disrupt Moldova’s accession to the European Union (EU) through destabilization, according to analysts at the Washington DC-based Institute for the Study of War. The Kremlin, ISW warned in a report, could also create conditions “for a false flag operation in Transnistria.”
What is Transnistria?
Transnistria is a Russian-allied breakaway region of Moldova located between part of the Dniester River in Moldova and Ukraine. Romania is in the west.
The region broke away from Moldova in 1990. In September 2006, it passed a referendum reaffirming its independence and calling for a union with Russia. This referendum was not recognized by Moldova.
In February 2022, Transnistria’s leaders appealed to Russia for protection. The appeal came days after the Ukraine war broke out and was similar to appeals to Russia made by pro-Moscow leaders in parts of Ukraine, which Russia used as justification for seizing power Crimea in 2014and large parts of Luhansk and Donetsk provinces in 2022.
Internationally, Transnistria is recognized as part of Moldova, but Europe has considered the region to be occupied by Russia since 2022.
Transnistria hosts Russian troops as well as a large Russian weapons depot, the Cobasna ammunition depot.
According to a report published in October by Harvard International Review, 1,500 Russian soldiers are currently stationed in the breakaway region of Moldova.
In what other ways is Russia putting pressure on Moldova?
Politically: Moldova agreed on one thing Presidential election last month amid allegations of Russian interference. However, the pro-Western Sandu party won 55.33 percent of the vote, defeating former prosecutor general Alexandr Stoianoglo, who was supported by the Russia-aligned Socialist Party.
In a report published earlier this year, London-based think tank Chatham House said that research by the think tank “suggests that Moscow is also targeting Moldova’s public information space with toxic disinformation.”
Moldova’s national security service has also alleged that pro-Russian oligarchs in Moldova paid millions of euros to stage anti-government protests and commit electoral fraud. They include former Moldovan parliamentarian Ilan Shor, who was convicted in absentia on fraud charges in January.
Energy: Meanwhile, Moldova is facing an energy crisis. Moldova receives about 2 billion cubic meters of gas from Russia annually. Since 2022, all gas has been sent to Transnistria.
Transnistria then sells electricity generated with Russian gas to Moldova.
However, this gas comes via a pipeline that runs through Ukraine. Kiev has now decided that it will no longer allow the transit of this gas. Sandu has accused Gazprom, the Russian gas giant, of not considering using an alternative pipeline and is trying to prepare Moldova for what she said is a “harsh” winter without Russian gas.
Russia’s gas supplies to Moldova are expected to end on January 1, 2025. At the beginning of December, Moldova declared a state of emergency due to the impending shortage.
Force: In April 2022, explosions took place against the Ministry of State Security in Tiraspol, the largest city in Transnistria. A day later, further explosions destroyed, among other things, two powerful radio antennas in Transnistria.
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, along with other allies of Ukraine, said that these explosions were also false flag attacks staged by Russia to portray Transnistria as being attacked by Moldova – because Moldova supports Ukraine.
