Azerbaijan marked a nationwide day of mourning for the victims of the plane crash on Thursday 38 people were killed and 29 survivors were injured as speculation grew about a possible cause of the disaster.
Azerbaijan Airlines’ Embraer 190 was en route from the Azerbaijani capital Baku to the Russian city of Grozny in the North Caucasus on Wednesday when it was diverted for reasons that remain unclear and crashed while attempting to land in Aktau, Kazakhstan, after heading east over the Caspian Sea had flown.
The plane crashed about 2 miles from Aktau. Cell phone footage shared online appeared to show the plane making a steep descent before hitting the ground in a fireball. Other footage showed part of the fuselage being torn away from the wings and the rest of the plane lying upside down in the grass.
National flags were lowered across Azerbaijan on Thursday, traffic across the country stopped at midday and signals sounded from ships and trains as the country observed a nationwide minute of silence.
At a news conference on Wednesday, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev said it was too early to speculate about the reasons for the crash, but said the weather had forced the plane to change its planned course.
“The information provided to me says that due to deteriorating weather conditions, the plane changed course between Baku and Grozny and flew to Aktau airport, where it crashed upon landing,” he said.
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Russia’s civil aviation agency Rosaviatsia said preliminary information suggested the pilots were diverted to Aktau after a bird strike led to an emergency on board.
When the official investigation into the crash began, there were numerous theories about a possible cause. Some commentators claimed that holes in the tail section of the plane may have indicated that the plane may have come under fire from Russian air defense systems that were repelling a Ukrainian drone attack.
Ukrainian drones had previously attacked Grozny, the provincial capital of the Russian Republic of Chechnya, and other regions in the country’s North Caucasus. Some Russian media claimed there was another drone attack on Chechnya on Wednesday, although this has not been officially confirmed.
Osprey Flight Solutions, a UK-based aviation security company, warned its customers that the “Azerbaijan Airlines flight was likely shot down by a Russian military air defense system.” Osprey provides analysis for airlines still flying to Russia after Western airlines suspended flights the war in Ukraine.
Osprey CEO Andrew Nicholson said the company issued more than 200 warnings about drone strikes and air defense systems in Russia during the war.
“This incident is a stark reminder of why we do what we do,” Nicholson wrote online. “It is painful to know that despite our efforts, lives were lost that could have been avoided.”
Russian military expert Yuri Podolyaka was quoted by Agence France-Presse as saying the holes seen in the plane’s wreckage were similar to those left by an “anti-aircraft missile system.” “Everything points to this,” he wrote.
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And Gerard Legauffre, a former expert at France’s BEA air accident investigation agency, also said the wreckage appeared to have suffered “large fragmentation damage,” according to AFP.
He described it as “reminiscent” of Malaysia Airlines flight MH17 shot down by Russian-backed rebels with a surface-to-air missile over eastern Ukraine in 2014.
However, when asked about claims that the plane was fired upon by air defense forces, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters: “It would be wrong to put forward hypotheses before investigators have made their verdict.”
Kazakhstan’s parliament speaker Maulen Ashimbayev also warned against drawing hasty conclusions based on images of the aircraft fragments, calling the allegations of anti-aircraft fire unfounded and “unethical.”
Other officials in Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan also avoided commenting on a possible cause of the crash, saying it was up to investigators to determine.
