Since Donald Trump’s re-election as US president, there has been increasing discussion about what his new administration’s policy towards Afghanistan might look like.
Many expect a tougher stance against the Taliban, but a closer look at Trump’s track record and statements on the issue shows that he is unlikely to make drastic changes to the pragmatic and strictly anti-intervention policies he pursued during his first term.
During his first term as president, Trump made clear his stance against lengthy foreign missions and particularly against the decades-long US presence in Afghanistan. He was the architect of the Doha Agreement 2020 between the US and the Taliban, which paved the way for the US withdrawal from the country and ultimately enabled the Taliban to return to power.
The Doha Agreement was a major turning point in America’s Afghanistan strategy. Dissatisfied with the progress of his administration’s South Asia policy, frustrated by the perceived lack of accountability of military advisers and eager to prove to his voter base that he could indeed end one of America’s longest and costliest wars, Trump began looking for a way out of Afghanistan. And after all traditional strategies failed to produce a viable exit plan, he began direct negotiations with the Taliban to end the conflict.
If re-elected, Trump is likely to stick with the business-oriented approach to foreign policy that remains popular with his base, favoring pragmatic deals over costly confrontations and military entanglements in Afghanistan and elsewhere.
The Taliban themselves appear to believe that Trump’s presidency could be beneficial to their future prospects. For example, the Afghan government hopes that the incoming Trump administration “will take realistic steps toward concrete progress in relations between the two countries and both nations will be able to open a new chapter in relations,” the State Department spokesman said , Abdul Qahar Balkhi posted on X in November shortly after Trump’s victory in the US election.
The Taliban’s optimism for the future relationship rests on its positive interactions with the first Trump administration. Finally, the first Trump administration negotiated directly with the Taliban, beginning the process of a U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan and preparing the ground for their return to Kabul.
But while he has been more open to pragmatic cooperation with the Taliban than President Joe Biden and has been staunchly opposed to any direct military confrontation, Trump is unlikely to let the Taliban do whatever they want with the country or give him everything , what it takes without giving them a chance price. For example, if the Taliban fails to make progress in fulfilling its commitments under the Doha agreement, Trump would likely cut U.S. aid or make it contingent on concrete progress in specific areas.
Trump has repeatedly advocated for cutting foreign aid as part of his “America First” approach and can also significantly reduce U.S. aid to Afghanistan without giving any reason or condition. He also would not hesitate to impose severe economic sanctions on the Taliban government if he concludes that it is harming American interests in one way or another.
Humanitarian aid from the USA in the amount of about $40 per week Since the Taliban came to power, this has been an important lifeline for Afghanistan’s impoverished population. Any restriction or reduction in U.S. aid would have significant consequences for the well-being of the country and the fragile Afghan economy. Such a decision would deepen Afghanistan’s economic crisis and further undermine progress in education, healthcare and food security.
Since Trump’s last term as president, global attention has turned away from Afghanistan. After the withdrawal of the USA and the beginning of hot conflicts with serious global consequences in Ukraine and Palestine, the country moved to the fringes of Washington’s foreign policy agenda. As an “America First” president who has to spend a lot of time dealing with the crises in the Middle East and Europe, it is highly unlikely that Trump will treat Afghanistan as anything other than a problem he has already solved.
However, Trump’s foreign policy isolationist tendencies, coupled with the aid cuts and economic sanctions he may impose on the Taliban, could easily lead to the collapse of the Afghan economy and once again make Afghanistan an urgent problem for the United States and its allies.
Afghanistan’s economic collapse could trigger a new migration crisis and significant regional instability, creating fertile ground for extremist groups like the ISIL (ISIS) branch in Khorasan Provinceto thrive.
While Trump’s non-interventionist stance appeals to an American audience wary of foreign intervention, the aftermath of a weakened and further impoverished Afghanistan could pose longer-term security challenges.
Such a scenario would also have serious consequences for the Afghan population – exacerbating economic hardship and leading to a possible collapse of health services, renewed conflict and further isolation from the rest of the world.
Once Trump is back in the White House and trying to implement his “America First” agenda, Afghanistan will likely no longer be a priority for him. Nevertheless, the decisions he makes regarding Afghanistan will have important consequences not only for the long-suffering Afghan people but also for the entire international community.
In short, in his second term, Trump must find the right balance between pragmatic disengagement and global leadership to succeed with his Afghanistan policy and ensure that his efforts to end one conflict do not lead to an even worse one later.
The views expressed in this article are the author’s own and do not necessarily reflect the editorial stance of Al Jazeera.
