When the Berlin Wall fell in November 1989, the news was recorded by many in Europe with both stunned surprises and guarded optimism. “Well, what belongs together will grow together,” said former Chancellor Willy Brandt in autumn 1989, as the future of East and West Germany Was in the head of managers all over the world.
The events moved quickly. Germany’s significant chancellor after the Second World War, Helmut Kohl, led 78 million anxious Germans (East and West) to a new era-die unification came in October 1990. An export-oriented economy attracted migrants from all over the world, while the nation with its previous one Engagement remained Warsaw Pact neighbors. It can be seen breathtaking that the surplus of trade was 250 billion US dollars a decade ago in 2014, seven percent of the country’s GDP. The United States last had an external surplus in 1975.
The changing times
The decades of war in Syria led to 850,000 refugees from this nation that Germany entered. After a visit to a 2015 refugee camp in Dresden, Chancellor Angela Merkle confidently said: “We can do it” (we can do that). The quote became a political Albatros when her migration policy became unpopular and the economy slowed down, especially in the east. Your CDU party sank in regional and national surveys.
Germany is today the third largest refugee hosting country in the world and the largest of the EU. Three and a half million refugees and asylum seekers from all over the world live in Germanyincluding one million from Ukraine in recent years.
The quick demographic changes seemed to promote domestic fear of the national identity of Germany. Inflation arrived in 2023 and the trading patterns were postponed. The Chinese consumers strive to buy dominance by BMW, Audi and Mercedes-Benz after decades. The shift has led to the planned discharge of thousands of automotive workers Germany. A recently carried out national survey showed that 68% of Germans fear an extended economic downturn because the country’s economy has committed itself for two consecutive years.
Together with uneven economic achievements in the countries of the former East Germany, the public security problems of the right populist alternative for the Germany (AfD) have granted momentum and importance.
The country’s unexplained political situation culminated in the youngest drama in Germany’s Bundestag. Former Chancellor Angela Merkel (Christian Democratic Union) said it was wrong that the current chairman of the CDU party, Friedrich Merz, was provided with the support of the AfD support in the Bundestag, since the legislation was considered Increased migration laws in the country in the country.
Merz, still the leader who became the next German Chancellor, wanted a legislative victory in immigration, the most important problem for Germans based on the latest surveys. But he had broken a widely accepted but unwritten rule about working with the AfD. The legislation lost the support of several CDU party members and could not exist.
Welcome or not, the migration debate in Berlin was apparently a paradigm shift in German politics. Merz is confident that the victory over the SDU party of Chancellor Olav Scholz only has to search in the United States to get further inspiration.
Donald Trump’s victory and his ability to improve the orthodoxy of the establishment, especially with regard to migration and border control questions, can be appealed by conservative voters. In a recently carried out Le Monde analysis, Merz ‘reputation was found as a “Atlantic as European” based on his professional experience, including the investment management company Blackrock. The CDU campaigns -slogan? “We can be proud of a Germany again.”
Merz could be the only political leader of EU in 2025, which can transform the challenges of transatlantic alliance into the guidelines for headlines grabbing, which can be a level of congruence with the priorities of the Trump management, from migration policy to taxation, the Find defense spending up to national identity.
Migration and commitment
Migration is also not a new phenomenon in Germany. Over 350,000 refugees fled to Germany during the Balkan Wars in the early and in the mid -nineties. Germany also houses the world’s largest Turkish community in overseas – more than three million.
The attraction in Germany is widespread and also grows in the Mediterranean. During a visit in Berlin by Morocco Foreign Minister last year, the German development minister Svenja Schulze Morocco described Morocco as a “close partner” for a variety of economic, green energy and security issues. Germany has undertaken to invest in Africa by 2030 in the amount of 4 billion 3 billion.
A Arab youth survey 2023 among young adults in the Mena region called Germany as a magnet for migration. Germany took place directly behind Canada and the United States and in front of France and Turkey as the preferred destination for young Arab men and women who wanted to migrate.
A decade ago, Germany began to make efforts to question national taboos about military missions outside of Germany – it contributed hundreds of military personnel to stabilization efforts as part of the United Nations stabilization mission. Last year, the Bundeswehr troops have founded the first constant German army base (Lithuania) since the Second World War -a result of the Russian attack on Ukraine. Almost unimaginable deprivation only before a generation.
A new post -war war Germany?
Regardless of the choice of choice, the AfD will have played a role in determining the agenda and the sound for the current German political discourse, similar to the Freedom Party of Geert Wilders in 2023. Demographic reality that influences domestic politics: acceptance of birth rates . In 2024 there were 8.2 births per 1,000 inhabitants in Germany, lower than a decade ago. The migration is of crucial importance for the participation of the workforce and a persistent economic growth, since the German population is still older.
A great victory by Friedrich Merz and the CDU would give a certain clarity to a political system in the coalition intra. There are several coalition options for the CDU if you win and the potential for a dramatic change in Germany tax, energy, migration and security guidelines.
Alternatively, frustrated voters can punish the CDU and the SPD, two establishment parties that face ideological challenges from their respective right and left flanks. Is the AfD 80 seats maintain or add more to the Bundestag? Will the green restore their lost swing? A lot depends on the depth of frustration among the German voters and of which you see that you are able to provide real solutions for real problems.
With a population that is approaching 85 million, Germany may be at a historic intersection. Domestic and foreign events as well as demographic trends can change both the national identity of Germany and its foreign policy priorities. A nation in the center of a continent that is undergoing a significant political and social change – just like 1989.
