Experts say the Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash in Kazakhstan “did not look like a bird strike,” as Russia claimed

On Friday, speculation grew that the Russian military may have played a role Azerbaijan Airlines plane crash According to experts, 38 people died and 29 survivors were injured in Kazakhstan on Christmas Day Cast doubt on Moscow’s proposal that a bird strike was to blame.

Azerbaijan Airlines Flight 8243, an Embraer 190 aircraft, was flying from the Azerbaijani capital Baku to the city of Grozny in Russia’s North Caucasus region on Wednesday when it was diverted two days later for reasons that remain unclear. At some point during the flight, the aircraft’s GPS tracking was reportedly disrupted, causing significant deviations in the flight path.

The plane crashed while trying to reach another airport in Aktau, western Kazakhstan, after flying east over the Caspian Sea. It crashed and exploded in a ball of flames just about two miles from Aktau Airport.

Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan and Russia all launched investigations into the cause of the crash, but two days later Russia faced the most acute questions. The Kremlin has urged people not to jump to conclusions, and Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, who has forged closer ties between his country and Russia during his two decades in power, also said it was too early to speculate.

“The information provided to me says that due to deteriorating weather conditions, the plane changed course between Baku and Grozny and flew to Aktau airport, where it crashed upon landing,” he said, as Russian Civil Aviation Authority Rosaviatsia suggested the bird strike theory .

However, a U.S. official told CBS News there were early indications that a Russian anti-aircraft system may have hit the plane in a region where Ukrainian and Russian forces have been firing drones and missiles for months. The official, who spoke to CBS News on condition of anonymity, said if that proves true, it would further underscore Russia’s ruthlessness in its ongoing invasion of Ukraine.

Independent aviation experts also cast doubt on the bird strike theory, pointing to damage to the plane’s fuselage as evidence of a more nefarious possible explanation.

“It certainly doesn’t look like a flock of birds,” said Robert Sumwalt, a CBS News aviation safety analyst and former chairman of the National Transportation Safety Board.

“Birds do not fly at the altitude at which the original damage to this aircraft occurred,” Sumwalt added.

Instead, the damage has the hallmarks of air force shrapnel, and British military veteran and security analyst Justin Crump told CBS News affiliate network BBC News that “the most likely hypothesis is that it was hit by an anti-aircraft missile – almost certainly.” .”Russian.”

Some survivors of the crash said they heard an explosion.

“Ukrainian drones were active at that time and that is consistent with everything we saw in pilots communicating with air traffic control,” Crump told the BBC.

Ukraine has relied heavily on explosive drones last year to attack Russian military and infrastructure targets in the western territory of the much larger neighboring country, and Russia often shoots down the weapons with its air defense systems.

For many observers, the circumstances of the Azerbaijan Airlines crash and the damage to the plane’s wreckage were a reminder of the situation Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 shot down in 2014. This passenger plane was hit by a missile fired by Russian-backed forces over eastern Ukraine, killing all 298 people on board.

Among those desperate for answers in Kazakhstan’s latest disaster are survivors of the crash, including a man who said from a hospital bed that he was sitting next to his wife on the plane when the plane went down.

“I haven’t seen my wife since,” he said.

Investigators recovered both so-called “black boxes” – the flight data and the cockpit voice recorders – from the crash site. Experts from Brazil, where the plane was built, were expected to arrive in Kazakhstan on Friday to help gather and analyze the information.

As the formal investigation gained momentum, the Ukrainian government on Friday called for Russia to be held responsible for the crash, as Azerbaijan Airlines had reportedly suspended scheduled service to seven cities in Russia.