Voters in the Republic of Congo will elect their next president on Sunday, although longtime leader Dennis Sassou Nguesso is likely to be elected uncontested, analysts say.
The Central African country, led almost continuously by Nguesso for more than 40 years, is one of the most politically repressive in the world and has been rated 17 out of 100 for freedom by Freedom House.
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The country is Africa’s third largest oil exporter. In addition to copper and diamonds, between 236,000 and 252,000 barrels are sold daily.
The Congo also has great biodiversity. The country’s extensive tropical rainforest areas are part of the Congo Basin – the second largest rainforest network in the world after the Amazon. The Nouabale-Ndoki National Park in the north is a UNESCO World Heritage Site and is home to elephants, endangered lowland gorillas and chimpanzees.
Nevertheless, the country of 6 million inhabitants is plagued by economic problems. Corruption and mismanagement contribute to Congo’s ranking of 171 out of 193 countries on the United Nations Human Development Index, analysts say.
A fractured political opposition, meanwhile, has only allowed Nguesso’s ruling Congolese Workers’ Party (PCT) to consolidate its power over the years, although a newcomer is raising hopes.
Here’s what we know about Sunday’s polls:
When do the polling stations open?
Polls will open on Saturday 15 March between 6am (05:00 GMT) and 6pm (05:00 GMT). More than 2.6 million people are eligible to vote; that means they are over 18 years old and registered.
According to the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES), voter turnout in 2021 – in the last election – was 67.70 percent. Authorities have announced that borders will be closed during the vote.
Candidates with an absolute majority usually win the elections; in rare cases there is also a runoff between the two top candidates.
The presidential term in Congo is five years. While the constitution previously allowed a maximum of two terms in office and an age limit of 70, this was abolished in 2015.
Who is running?
Dennis Sassou Nguesso: The 82-year-old was first elected to office in 1979 and led the country in a one-party state for 12 years. He lost elections after opposition lawmakers voted to introduce a multi-party system. On his second attempt in 1997, he seized power in a bloody civil war and has remained in office ever since. He is Africa’s third oldest ruler.
Nguesso’s legacy is one of severe underdevelopment and corruption, said Andrea Ngombet, the exiled founder of Sassoufit, a group advocating for Nguesso’s exit. In 2015, Nguesso pushed through a controversial referendum that reset presidential term limits from two to three. In addition, the age restrictions have been completely lifted, allowing him to compete for the fifth consecutive time in 2021.
Strong influence over the country’s judiciary and the Independent National Electoral College (CENI) has helped secure Nguesso’s influence, analysts say. According to Ngombet, his strategic international alliances, from Beijing to Moscow to Paris, have secured foreign investment and strengthened his influence. But since 2013, under pressure from civil society, France has launched investigations into his family’s numerous assets in Europe and the United States. French authorities confiscated property belonging to his son Denis-Christel Sassou Nguesso in 2022.
Melaine Deston Gavet Elengo: At just 35 years old, Elengo’s candidacy has caused a stir. The oil sector engineer leads the Republican movement and is the youngest candidate in the race. Despite being a first-time presidential candidate, Elengo appears to be attracting unusually high levels of interest as he presents himself as a departure from the old system. His campaign emphasized a government built on transparency, an independent justice system and inclusive development.
“He could secure at least 20 percent of the vote, which signals a generational change,” Ngombet said.
“Its unique advantage lies in the unspoken support of the UPADS dissidents who are frustrated by the boycott,” he added, referring to the opposition Pan-African Union for Social Democracy (UPADS) party, which boycotted the March 21, 2021 presidential election on integrity grounds. UPADS is doing the same thing this year, but has called on its supporters to vote according to their “conscience”.
Elengo is also closely linked to political heavyweights such as the opposition Union of Humanist Democrats, founded by popular opposition politician Guy-Brice Parfait Kolelas, who came second in 2016.
Joseph Kignoumbi Kia Mboungou, 73: The veteran lawmaker is leader of The Chain political party and represents the southwestern department of Lekoumou. He has run several times in the past without much success, with his 2021 bid garnering just 0.62 percent of the vote. Mboungou’s campaign promised political change and an economy different from oil while reducing poverty.
Uphrem Dave Mafoula, 43: The economist is chairman of the New Start Party. He is running for the top job for the second time, having been the youngest candidate in 2021 and receiving just 0.52 percent of the vote. Mafoula’s goal is to implement government reforms, create jobs and reduce inequalities.
Vivien Romain Manangou, 43: The independent freshman is a university lecturer committed to institutional reform, improving public finances and promoting national unity.
Mabio Mavoungou Zinga, 69: The retired customs inspector and former MP, who is running for the opposition Alliance party, promises to fight corruption and release jailed opposition leaders. It is his first offer.
Anguios Nganguia Engambe, around 60: The President of the Party of Action of the Republic is running as a presidential candidate for the fourth time. In 2021 he only received 0.18 percent of the vote. This time he has promised to bridge the country’s political divides and promote better political participation.
Which opposition leaders were targeted?
Several opposition leaders are either in prison or have fled into exile. Some are:
Jean-Marie Michel Mokoko, 78: A former army chief and adviser to Nguesso who turned against the president and ran for elections in 2016. He called for protests after results showed he won 13.74 percent and came third. He was subsequently arrested on charges of undermining state security and sentenced to 20 years in prison in 2018.
Andre Okombi in Sal: A former leading member of the ruling Congolese Workers’ Party and a former minister, Salissa also switched to the opposition in 2016 to run in the elections. Shortly afterwards he was also arrested on security charges. In 2019 he was sentenced to 20 years of hard labor.
What are the core topics?
Poverty despite oil wealth
Analysts have long warned that a lack of economic diversification is hurting the country’s prospects. As Africa’s third-largest oil producer, Congo generates more than 80 percent of its export revenue from oil, according to the World Bank, making the economy vulnerable to shocks.
Government investment in hydrocarbons has only increased in recent years. In 2015, authorities wanted to increase daily production to 500,000 barrels of oil per day within three years. Production and export of liquefied natural gas (LNG) also began in 2024.
However, around half of the population lives below the poverty line. Most live in the major cities of Brazzaville and Pointe-Noire, where access to electricity and roads is available but dismal. Analysts say the situation is even worse in rural areas.
Although the population is young, with almost half under the age of 18, job creation is low. Many Young people with university degrees have to turn to menial jobs for survival. According to the World Bank, the unemployment rate is around 40 percent, with inadequate electricity supply being one of the biggest obstacles to business.
Forests and agriculture
Before oil production began in the 1970s, agricultural products and timber were Congo’s largest sources of income.
However, Congo relies on food imports due to the switch to oil.
Although the country has up to 10 million hectares of arable land, only a small percentage is cultivated, mostly for low-yield subsistence agriculture.
The government has announced plans to boost cassava, corn, sorghum and soy production, as well as fisheries and poultry development.
Meanwhile, deforestation in the Congo Basin, which includes parts of Congo and five neighboring countries, almost doubled between 2010 and 2020 compared to the previous decade.
Political Freedom and Post-Nguesso Race
According to the Africa Center for Strategic Studies, protests are rare in the country because authorities do not issue permits and respond with violence when demonstrators gather.
Opposition members are regularly imprisoned. Nguesso appoints national judges himself, meaning the judiciary is not independent.
Many Congolese expect Nguesso to win Sunday’s election, which is why much attention is now focused on who is likely to take over the country’s leadership in the coming years.
Analysts believe that an intense race for succession is already brewing behind the scenes.
Denis-Christel Nguesso, the president’s son and international cooperation minister, is the clear favorite but faces challenges from the president’s nephew and head of national security, Jean-Dominique Okemba.
The Nguessos’ cousin, Jean-Jacques Bouya, who is currently minister of planning and construction, is another candidate.
