What does this mean for the upcoming season and how often will teams in these positions stay there once May rolls around? Let’s break it down.
Does being top at Christmas guarantee the title?
Historically, being at the top on Christmas Day offers mixed prospects.
In 16 of the 32 Premier League seasons, the team leading the table at the time has won the trophy – a success rate of 50%.
However, Liverpool have a less encouraging record. This is the seventh time they have been first on December 25, but in the 2019/20 season they have only managed to convert one of those leads into a title.
Where will your team spend Christmas? 🎄#FestiveFixtures pic.twitter.com/gvP1axTs40
— Premier League (@premierleague) December 23, 2024
In fact, Liverpool have been top of the table at Christmas more times than any other English club in history, achieving the feat 21 times and winning the league 11 times.
Recent history shows how unpredictable leadership is at Christmas. Arsenal, for example, topped the table last season for the fourth time in the Premier League era but, as in the previous three attempts, failed to secure the title.
In contrast, Chelsea, Manchester City, Blackburn Rovers and Leicester City have won the title every time they were ahead on Christmas Day.
Interestingly, teams outside the top four have occasionally won the title at Christmas.
This has happened four times, including last season when Manchester City climbed from fifth place, six points behind Arsenal, to win the league for a fourth consecutive year.
Who is in the European spots?
The current top four includes Liverpool, Chelsea, Arsenal and a surprise candidate – Nottingham Forest.
Fifth-placed Bournemouth could even enter the Champions League conversation depending on how other English clubs fare in European competitions.
Chelsea’s record of 15 goals conceded in the Premier League from 04/05 is officially secured for another season 🤩 pic.twitter.com/dQe3ExglQC
– Football on TNT Sports (@footballontnt) December 22, 2024
Aston Villa and Manchester City are in sixth and seventh place respectively, which could be the Europa League and Conference League places depending on the winners of the domestic cups.
It’s worth noting that last season’s Christmas top seven saw significant changes by the end of the campaign. Only West Ham (then sixth) were eliminated, while Chelsea moved from tenth to the top seven.
Relegation: Who is in trouble?
At the other end of the table, Ipswich, Wolves and Southampton occupy the relegation zone.
Southampton’s situation looks particularly bleak as they sit eight points behind bottom of the table. Wolves and Southampton recently appointed new managers in a bid to turn their fortunes around.
It’s rare that the same three teams that find themselves in the relegation zone at Christmas stay there in May, but it does happen.
Last season, Luton, Burnley and Sheffield United all remained in the bottom three from Christmas to the final matchday.
— Sky Sports Premier League (@SkySportsPL) December 23, 2024
This has only happened in four other Premier League seasons:
- 2001-02: Derby, Leicester, Ipswich
- 2012-13: Wigan, QPR, Reading
- 2020-21: Fulham, West Brom, Sheffield United
Being bottom of the table at Christmas offers little hope, as in such a scenario only four teams out of 32 will avoid relegation. The exceptions include West Bromwich Albion (2004-05), Sunderland (2013-14), Leicester City (2014-15) and Wolves (2022-23).
Interestingly, two Premier League-era clubs were in the top 10 at Christmas and still suffered relegation: Norwich City (seventh place 1994-95) and Blackpool (tenth place 2010-11).
For comparison, the team currently in seventh place – Manchester City – is unlikely to follow in these footsteps.
What lies ahead?
As the league heads into the second half of the season, Liverpool’s chances of converting their Christmas lead into a title remain uncertain given their history, while Southampton face an uphill battle to avoid relegation.
With European football on the horizon for several teams and the relegation battle heating up, the Premier League promises plenty of drama in the coming months.
