Before the penultimate matchday of the league phase of the Champions League, the reigning English, Spanish and French champions are all threatened with automatic elimination.
When Manchester City When they visit Paris Saint-Germain and Real Madrid host Salzburg on Wednesday (both 8pm GMT), all three of the competition’s heavyweights know that a win would make the final day of the match much more comfortable.
The Champions League’s new 36-team single-league format means teams must finish between ninth and 24th to secure a place in the knockout stage play-offs, while automatic promotion as one of the eight best teams is not out of the question for the three sides.
101GreatGoals.com takes a look at how close each of the established contenders are to elimination and what task lies ahead of them in the final two games of this phase.
Man City: Danger in Paris?
Seven points from their first three games put City on course for automatic progression, only their subsequent form reflected their surprising domestic woes since November – by far the worst of Pep Guardiola’s almost-win-win reign.
There were slight defeats on both sides at Sporting and Juventus 3-3 draw at home against Feyenoord It was memorable for all the wrong reasons, as the 2022/23 champions blew a 3-0 lead after the 74th minute.
That puts them one point above the elimination places, albeit with a goal difference that is at least four better than any other team in the bottom eight.
With PSG unbeaten at home this season and in even greater need of a positive result, a point could be welcome for City and would almost certainly leave their fate in their hands when they host a Club Brugge side on January 29th , who are currently two points above them (8 p.m.).
A win would put them in a better position to finish between ninth and 16th and be seeded for the play-off draw. Only two wins would give them a chance of automatic progression.
City were last eliminated in the early stages of the 2012/13 season, when they drew all their home games and lost all three away games in a group that also included Ajax, Real Madrid and Borussia Dortmund. Manager Roberto Mancini left at the end of the season.
Guardiola, who won the competition in 2009 and 2011 with Barcelona,
The Spaniard’s shortest coaching career in the competition came in his first season at the Etihad Stadium in 2016/17, when he lost to Monaco in the round of 16 following a 6-6 draw due to the now-abolished away goals rule.
PSG: In the elimination places
As runners-up in the 2019/20 season and semi-finalists in two of the last four seasons, Paris finds itself in the most precarious position of the three titans heading into matchday seven, just one point away from the elimination places.
Drawing may not be enough to lift them over the line. A point would have seen them rise above Dinamo Zagreb, who are immediately higher up, if the Croatian club lose at Arsenal on Wednesday (8pm), but Stuttgart, level on points with PSG, expect to do so at Slovan on Tuesday (8pm). to win The team from Bratislava is still looking for its first point.
PSG is on an eight-game winning streak, but has not yet faced potentially dangerous opponents like City. They will be hoping to save their best for last after extending a European Cup victory of one point from four games with a 3-0 win at Salzburg on matchday six.
A defeat would increase the pressure before PSG travel to Stuttgart on January 29 (8pm), where they will face opponents who have started the year with three straight wins to move into fourth place in the Bundesliga.
Paris has had several disappointing seasons – they were eliminated in the round of 16 in both 2021/22 and 2022/23, despite having Lionel Messi, Kylian Mbappé and Neymar in their ranks – but have turned away each time this season Initial phase further improved 12 consecutive years of participation.
The last time they failed at the competition’s first hurdle was in 2004/05, when coach Vahid Halilhodzic was replaced by Laurent Fournier in February.
Current coach Luis Enrique was never eliminated in the first phase when coaching in the Champions League, winning the title in his first season as Barcelona coach in 2014/15.
The 54-year-old has led Paris by nine points following an 18-game unbeaten run in this year’s Ligue 1 season, although they suffered a 2-1 win at Lens on Saturday.
“I’m very happy with the win,” the former Spanish coach said afterwards, describing PSG as “in good momentum” and with “a lot of hope” for the Champions League.
Real Madrid: defending champions in danger
Along with City, Madrid became the only team to win all six group stage games, extending their own record by winning the Champions League for the 15th time in 2023/24.
Such an early exit seems unthinkable for the dominant force in the competition, but defeats at Lille and Liverpool as well as a home loss to Milan mean Madrid sit two points above the elimination places.
Madrid will be strong favorites at home to Salzburg on Wednesday (8pm) with five defeats and one win to end the day’s match with a look up – but an end to their two-game winning streak in all competitions could mean that They have a chance to win a result a week later (8 p.m.) in Brest, who are currently in the automatic knockout round places.
Even the prospect of a play-off would be a surprise for a squad with players like Vinicius Jr, Kylian Mbappe and Jude Bellingham, not least because Madrid have reached at least the semi-finals in 14 of the last 16 seasons.
They have never been eliminated at the first opportunity in 70 years of involvement, although they were eliminated in the round of 16 in 2018/19 and were sacked in their first season following the departure of two managers Cristiano Ronaldo, the Champions League’s all-time top goalscorer.
The following season they were eliminated at the same stage, losing both round of 16 games 1-2 against City under Zinedine Zidane.
manager Carlo Ancelotti has won the Champions League twice as coach of Milan and three times as coach of Madrid, but the most successful coach in the history of the competition has been eliminated in the group stage three times.
Ancelotti’s Parma lost only one of their six games, but were still eliminated in 1997/98 when the runners-up were eliminated. The Italian finished bottom of the group with Juventus in 2000/01 and third with Napoli in 2018/19.
When will the Champions League knockout phase play-offs take place?
Teams finishing between the top and bottom eight will take part in two home and away games in the knockout phase play-offs.
The first legs will take place on February 11th and 12th, with the second legs following a week later. The draw to decide the matches will take place on January 31st.
When is the Champions League round of 16?
The top eight teams and the play-off winners will take part in the round of 16 first legs on March 4th and 5th, followed by the second legs a week later.
The draw for the round of 16, quarter-finals and semi-finals will take place on February 21st.
