Russia moves equipment to Syrian bases, satellite images show

Analysts say Russia is transporting a large amount of military equipment to Syria, signaling preparations for a partial withdrawal.

Satellite images show a cluster of military vehicles at a Russian-controlled port and air base in western Syria.

In recent days, transport aircraft also appear to have arrived and departed from the country.

BBC Verify has also geolocated videos showing large convoys of Russian military trucks heading north towards these bases.

The Institute for War Research believes that this indicates preparations for a reduction or complete withdrawal of Russian forces.

The Washington-based think tank added that moving military vehicles to its bases could be a precautionary measure while Moscow negotiates with the new government in Damascus.

Russia had a significant military presence in Syria during Bashar al-Assad’s rule and helped him stay in power after the civil war erupted in 2011.

The two most significant bases are the port of Tartus, which was built by the Soviet Union in the 1970s and expanded and modernized by Russia in 2012, and the Hmeimim air base, which has been in operation since 2015 and has been used for air strikes across Syria in support of Assad .

Both have become important strategic bases for Russia, giving it easier access to the Middle East, North Africa and the Mediterranean.

However, the fall of Assad has led to this raised questions about Russia’s future presence in Syria. Moscow is trying to negotiate with the new regime.

On Monday, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said there were “no final decisions” and that Russia was “in contact with representatives of the forces that now control the situation in (Syria).”

BBC Verify monitored the activities of Hmeimim Air Base using satellite imagery from Planet Labs. There are signs of ongoing activity involving large military transport aircraft. Two large Antonov An-124 aircraft were spotted at the base on Friday and may be used to transport assets from Syria. They had left on Tuesday, but two large planes were back at the base on Wednesday morning.

Additional images taken Sunday by Maxar Technologies show dozens of military vehicles parked at the airfield near a Russian-made Ilyushin Il-76 military transport plane that could be used for evacuations.

BBC Verify located a large Russian Antonov An-124 on aircraft tracking website Flightradar24 on Tuesday. Its publicly available tracker showed it over Russian airspace toward Syria. It then disappeared from Flightradar24 off the Syrian coast, west of Hmeimim Air Base, likely because its public tracker was turned off. It is next seen heading back north six hours later.

David Heathcote, intelligence manager at McKenzie Intelligence, said the Rapid Collapse of the Assad government meant that it was unlikely that Russia had a plan to evacuate resources.

He described the activities at the Hmeimim air base as “unusual” and suggested that Russia was storing some resources at the base and was preparing to withdraw some equipment and personnel from Syria.

Tayfun Ozberk, a former naval officer and defense analyst, agreed that the images showed “early stages of a Russian withdrawal from Syria with clear signs of an airborne evacuation.”

“The presence of Il-76 aircraft, the absence of Russian ships in Tartous and the organized pre-deployment of vehicles and equipment support this conclusion,” Mr Ozberk said.

BBC Verify reported last week how Russian warships had left the port of Tartuswith analysts suggesting they will be stationed in international waters for the time being.

Those ships have not returned – but as satellite images show, more than 100 military vehicles have arrived at the base in recent days.

Mr Heathcote said it was likely that vehicles would be prepared for evacuation, although this was unlikely to happen immediately due to the lack of loading docks and cranes.

Recent footage also showed large columns of Russian vehicles moving – suggesting they were redirected from other Russian outposts across the country.

BBC Verify located the videos on a main road, suggesting they were moving north towards the bases.

An 80-second video published on X shows a long line of Russian vehicles geolocated 30 km south of Homs. Another video showed a column of Russian vehicles on the same highway further south, 70 km outside Damascus.

“Russia is now withdrawing units and military equipment that were stationed in nearly a hundred strongholds across the country before the fall of Damascus,” said Anton Mardasov, a non-resident researcher in the Middle East Institute’s Syria program.

Additional reporting by Ned Davies.