Will Trudeau resign? Four paths Canada’s prime minister could take

Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s future appears uncertain after his highest-ranking Cabinet member, a once-close ally, suddenly resigned.

Chrystia Freeland – the former deputy prime minister and finance minister – resigned her posts on Monday with an open letter to Trudeau outlining disagreements with him over spending and “the best path forward for Canada.”

Those differences, she said, are underscored by new U.S. President Donald Trump’s threat of tariffs on Canadian goods – tariffs that economists say could deal a devastating economic blow to Canada.

Questions are now being asked on Parliament Hill, including from some members of his own Liberal Party, about whether he can lead at this critical time.

He is faced with a few options as to how to proceed.

Trudeau has been leader of the Liberal Party of Canada since 2013 and has been Canada’s prime minister for just over nine years, since 2015.

According to the party’s statutes, the chairman can submit his resignation at any time. Effective immediately, an interim leader will be appointed until party members can meet and vote on a new permanent leader.

Trudeau could also choose to remain in his post until the new leader is elected.

Once a new leader is named, Trudeau would have to give up his powers as prime minister and hand them over to his successor.

Trudeau is not indicating that he will voluntarily resign any time soon.

In an emergency meeting with his caucus following Freeland’s departure, Trudeau told his Liberal parliamentary colleagues (including some who had directly called for his resignation) that he would take time to reflect, according to multiple reports.

And in a holiday address to Liberal Party supporters on Tuesday, he acknowledged that politics presents “big challenges” but said: “In difficult times, it is not the time to quit. It’s time to be ambitious and bold.”

Trudeau has been under pressure since the summer as his approval ratings have plummeted and a series of particular election losses in once-safe Liberal seats suggest major problems for his party.

There was a small factional revolt in October, with 24 MPs signing a letter calling for him to leave.

Polls suggest the official opposition Conservative Party would win a decisive victory in a Canadian federal election today.

Trudeau has persevered despite these difficulties and has repeatedly promised to run again as Liberal leader in the next election.

Only 13 of 153 Liberal MPs have openly called for his resignation so far – nearly half of whom are not seeking re-election themselves, according to a recording obtained by CBC News.

Nevertheless, according to the party’s statutes, the position of party leader can only be formally put to a vote by members after an election defeat.

The Conservatives, who have a double-digit lead in opinion polls, have been trying for months to force an election through a series of no-confidence votes in the House of Commons.

If a government loses a confidence motion or a vote in the House of Representatives, it is expected to resign or seek the dissolution of Parliament, triggering a federal election.

In the event of a vote of no confidence, the government needs the support of the majority of the 338 MPs. Of these, the Liberals are missing 17 seats.

The Conservatives’ efforts failed after either the NDP or the Bloc Québécois supported the Liberals in return for assistance in pushing through their respective policy priorities.

With Parliament adjourning on Tuesday for the holidays, Trudeau will not face the threat of another confidence motion until late January at the earliest.

On Monday, NDP leader Jagmeet Singh called on Trudeau to resign for the first time, which increasingly weakened the Liberals’ grip on power.

The leader of the NDP House of Representatives told broadcaster CBC that his members would vote in favor of a no-confidence motion if the prime minister is still leader in the new year.

One way Trudeau could avoid the vote is to prorogue Parliament — essentially a suspension that would stop all proceedings, including debates and votes, without dissolving Parliament.

Although it is a routine part of parliamentary procedure, it is sometimes used by governments to buy time during a political crisis.

Parliament was last prorogued by Trudeau in August 2020, when his government faced an ethics scandal over its handling of a contract with a charity.

It was also used to avoid a vote of no confidence by Trudeau’s predecessor, Conservative Prime Minister Stephen Harper, who postponed the general election in December 2008 as federal opposition parties attempted to form a coalition government.

Parliament resumed in January 2009. By this point the coalition had fallen apart, allowing Harper to remain in power.

Whatever Trudeau decides, an election in the coming months is inevitable.

Canada must hold its next election no later than October, and ultimately it could be voters who decide its future.