Doha-Bank al-Maghrib (BAM), the central bank of Morocco, announced a reduction in the key rate from 25 basis points to 2.25%on Tuesday. mark The second cut in a row and third place since June 2024, since inflation remains under control and economic growth is supported.
“In view of the forecast development of inflation on levels in accordance with the aim of the price stability and strengthening the support for economic activity and employment, the Council has decided to reduce the key figure by 25 basis points to 2.25%” specified In his press release after his first quarter of 2025.
Inflation to stay moderate while growth accelerates
The central bank reported that inflation in 2024 has significantly slowed an average of 0.9%of higher levels in the past two years. According to BAM’s forecasts, inflation is expected to accelerate moderately and fluctuate by around 2% in the next two years.
“The core inflation component was 2.2% in 2024 and would also develop by about 2% in the medium term,” said the bank that experts from the financial sector expect average installments of 2.2% for the 8-quarter horizon and 2.4% for the 12-quarters horizon.
The non -agricultural growth reached 4.2% in 2024 and will be maintained in the medium term, which is mainly driven by infrastructure investments. However, the agricultural sector faces challenges, with added value in 2024 declining by 4.7%.
“The economy growth was 3.2% in 2024 and should gradually accelerate to reach 3.9% this year and 4.2% in 2026, ”BAM projected.
With regard to employment, data for 2024 persistent effects on the contraction of the agricultural sector show, whereby 137,000 jobs are lost in agriculture.
However, non -agricultural employment showed a recovery with 160,000 new positions in services, 46,000 industry and 13,000 construction work. The unemployment rate rose to 13.3% at the national level, 16.9% in urban areas and 6.8% in rural zones.
External trade dynamics and money conditions show resilience
The current account deficit is expected to be expanded to 2.9% of GDP in 2025 before it is 2% to 2% in 2026. The foreigners for foreign direct investments are expected to improve, with the 3% of GDP in 2025 and 3.3% in 2026 approaching 2.8% in 2024.
“In the end of 2025, the official reserve assets on MAD 391.8 billion (39.18 billion US dollars) and then to 408 billion (40.8 billion US dollars) would increase at the end of 2026, which corresponds to the equivalent of 5 months and 5 days of imports,” said the bank.
The exports of phosphate and derivative sales are expected to be promoted this year, which is expected to increase by 15.2% this year and 8.6% to MAD 108.6 billion (10.86 billion US dollars), while the automotive sector’s exports reach 195 billion dollars in 2026 MAD) should.
tourism revenue are expected to be extended to almost 125 billion US dollars ($ 12.5 billion) in 2026 Transfers from Moroccans who live abroad to consolidate around $ 123 billion ($ 12.3 billion).
The bank’s liquidity requirement decreased on average in January and February 2025 to MAD 128.7 billion ($ 12.87 billion). The creditworthiness of the non -financial sector is expected to accelerate significantly, “in 2024 rising to 5.9% in 2025 and then in 2026 to 6%.
In addition, BAM announced a new support program for the bank financing of very small companies (VSES), in which the participating banks corresponds to a preference rate for minus 25 basis points.
“This mechanism and the obligation expressed by the banking sector should improve access to funds for this corporate category and strengthen its contribution to creating jobs,” said the bank.
Global view and budget consolidation path
In the international front, BAM found that “despite the geopolitical tensions and restrictive money conditions, the global economy had a total of relative resistance in 2024, albeit with different countries.”
The bank pointed out that global inflation will continue its delay and in 2025 and 2026 from 3.7% in 2024 to 3.2%. In the most important advanced economies, inflation in 2025 and 2.1% in 2026 for the euro zone in the euro zone is projected with 2.4%.
With regard to public finances, normal income improved by 15.3%in 2024, which is due to a strong tax survey service. Total editions rose by 6.5%, which is due to higher expenses for goods, services and investments.
“The budget deficit without income from state participation should gradually facilitate 4.1% of GDP in 2024 to 3.9% in 2025 and 3.6% in 2026,” BAM projected.
Since the nominal appreciation of the dirham is compensated for by the inflation differential between Morocco and its main trading partners and competitors, it is expected that the actual effective exchange rate in 2025 will be estimated by 0.8% before stabilizing in 2026.
