The Groundhog Day arrived on Sunday, February 2, and Punxsutawney Phil, the most famous ground though forecast, saw his shadow and forecast winter weather for six weeks. Boooo, say those of us who are already fed up with cold. But there are some questions about Philās accuracy. Indeed, an opposum Sand Mountain Sam In Boaz, Alabama predicted an early spring this year when he didnāt see his shadow. How exactly are these animal forecasts?
The national oceanic and atmospheric administration checked Punxsutawney Philās track record Last year and found the predictions of the Fuzzy ambassador. This year NOAA took a deeper immersion in the results of the Groundhog Day and evaluated the work of 19 marmots and Groundhog mooring mother to determine the accuracy of your predictions. Spoiler: Phil was 17 ..
A marmot in Virginia nibbles on a certain vegetation.
Noaa ranks the groundhogs
Noaa set a few basic rules. The marmot and āalternative marmotā must have been forecast for at least 20 years and have also been active from February 2, 2024 never seen creature Probably as a marmot, a prairie dog statue and a turtle.
Noaa uses data from its national centers for environmental information that entertain an archive with ocean, weather and climate data. The agency compared the track records of the Groundhogs with the average values
All hails Staten Island Chuck, a Woodchuck in the Staten Island Zoo in New York City. Chuck, also known as Charles G. Hogg, exceeded the ranking with 85% accuracy. He was famous for the mayor in 2009 when Michael Bloomberg tried to persuade him for a Groundhog Day ceremony.
The next best Groundhog was General Beauregard Lee from the Dauset Trails Nature Center In Jackson, Georgia with 80% accuracy. The third place belongs to Lander Lil, a bronze statue of a prairie dog in Lander, Wyoming. Lander Lil had an accuracy of 75%. Murmount animals donāt live in Wyoming, but Prairie Dogs do it. The forecast principles are the same. When Lander Lil āseesā a shadow at Groundhog Day, more winter is expected.
How Punxsutawney Phil went
Mojave Max is a desert turtle like the one depicted here in a National Park Service picture.
A total of 14 of the marmots had an accuracy of 50% or better. The poor Punxsutawney Phil only achieved 35% accuracy and landed close to the bottom of the ranking. At least he is more precise than him Mojave MaxA desert turtle in the Springs Preserve in Nevada, which took the last place with 25% accuracy.
However, the ranking may not be fair to Mojave Max. The turtle is not led around at the Groundhog Day. His predictions are based on it when he emerges from the brum (such as hibernation for reptiles). Max stands up at some point between February and April of each year.
āWarmer temperatures, longer daylight hours and its own internal clock are factors that are known to contribute to its appearance every year.ā The Clark County Desert Conservation Program said. His appearance marks the unofficial spring start for south -nevada.
The Groundhog Day has been a tradition at Gobblerās Knob in Punxsutawney, Pennsylvania since the end of the 19th century, and it is still strong. Noaaās exposing of the forest mantle weather forecast does not affect the fun of the celebration. What Phil lacks in accuracy, he makes up in mere fame, cubity and charisma. So turn on Phil, but maybe station your spring plans on a rodent from Staten Island and not on Punxsutawney.
